In 2017
It is a strange and dire time to continue a predictions series, is it not? The Loon considered bypassing this entry altogether.
However.
During her workplace’s most recent accreditation go-round, the Loon took on the unofficial job of calm confidence emanator: the self-study will be done on time; preparation for the site visit will be adequate; whatever happens, we will stand up to it. (This in addition to her official accreditation-related jobs, as accreditation is an all-wings-on-deck situation.) This may sound anodyne, and perhaps it is, but the Loon thinks it moved things along a few times when they might otherwise have bogged down in recrimination or gloom.
The Loon generally favors moving things along when they need to be moved, and for her part, she finds it easier to do so when she preserves as much normalcy for herself as feasible. Ergo, she will apply her birdbrain to another prediction set.
No-brainers
- Net neutrality is dead. So is any broadband Internet access not provided by megacarriers. The worst casualty here will likely be rural US broadband, which is a tremendous shame since lack of it is an economic depressant for areas that need no more economic depressants.
- The OSTP Memo will be rolled back. Even if officially it flies under the radar quietly enough to stay extant, unofficially it seems likeliest that several agencies will delay implementation. Biomedicine is already making noises about rollback on data sharing, which is a pity as it arguably needs the discipline most.
- The Loon meant to predict that the mighty Elsevier would finally start to lose Big Deal contracts, but reality preceded her, so she will have to go bigger. She therefore predicts that Elsevier will lose either a national Big Deal (Germany is the obvious candidate, but who knows, Jisc might locate its spine) or a major consortial US Big Deal, on the order of an entire state university system.
- More racist, sexist, homophobic, anti-trans campus violence. Unfortunately.
Perhapses
- Another library school (and the Loon uses the word “library” instead of “information” with intent) will either be forcibly merged, fold, or cede accreditation. The Loon hasn’t done well with these predictions, so she is hedging her bets a bit. Forcible merger is likeliest.
- The aforementioned Elsevier-negotiation breakdown shatters the dike at last. After Jenica Rogers turned down ACS’s Big Deal, the Loon heard about several other less-public ACS turndowns. The Overton Window is real; librarians are even more leery than usual of losing a Big Deal before they can point to someone else who turned it down. Elsevier’s Scopus and Thomson’s Web of Science (which appear to the Loon to be in a weird pushmi-pullyu for market share, as many libraries and consortia as explicitly compare them and choose one or the other; EBSCO is in that mix somewhere as well) are nearly the last uncancellables the Loon can think of. This prediction is likely premature for 2017, but by 2019 or so its odds increase substantially.
- Rollback or no rollback, some federal agencies will continue down their OSTP Memo path. If the Loon were forced to, she would bet her fish on the agencies that have chosen to align with PubMed Central.
- Sci-Hub use explodes in Europe and the US. As always with scholarly-communication innovation, the trouble is getting the word out to faculty. Once they hear of Sci-Hub, however, it is such an easy sell it hardly qualifies as a sell at all. The Loon believes Sci-Hub has, or will soon have, enough US/European adopters to go properly viral.
Who knows? Not this Loon.
- For-profit higher education, including coding bootcamps. Hard-sell advertising or no, favorable political environment or no, has it screwed enough pooches that its targets grow wary? Privatization of student loans in the US will not help this sector either—or if it does, it will likely be a quick-to-pop bubble.
- Surveillance in higher education and libraries, call it “assessment” or “learning analytics” or what you will. The opposition is starting to mobilize, but it is much smaller in numbers than the Loon would wish.
- Twitter. The Loon has all but abandoned it, and she is not alone. It has served several worthwhile societal purposes, but those may not suffice to save it from itself.
There now. We have a great deal to move along. The Loon wishes us all strength to move things in 2017.
Elsevier can’t lose a national big deal in Germany because there isn’t a national big deal in Germany. What is being discussed is the formation of one. Comparisons between the UK and Germany on this don’t appear to notice that the starting conditions are totally different – as are the consequences of not reaching an agreement
Ah, thank you. It is good to know of a last holdout against the Big Deal.
The Loon still thinks Elsevier will lose one in 2017.